The Path to CO₂-Neutral Mobility in 2050

Authors

Dipl.-Ing. M. Kratzsch, Dipl.-Ing. W. Wukisiewitsch, Dipl.-Ing. M. Sens, Dr.-Ing. M. Brauer, IAV GmbH, Berlin;
Dr. R. Tröger, consulting4drive GmbH, Berlin

Year

2019

Print Info

Fortschritt-Berichte VDI, Reihe 12, Nr. 811

Summary

CO₂ free mobility 2050 is based on renewable primary energies as the basis for the energy sources to be provided for mobility. This can take place directly in the form of electricity or converted into PtX fuels (thus also hydrogen) in the case of renewable energies or based on biomass. This makes it possible to present different technologies for future powertrains. The way in which the corresponding fleet composition for mobility 2050 is designed depends on influencing factors that can be assigned to different interest groups and cannot be considered independently of one another. The present article focuses primarily on individual mobility, although primary energy consumption for freight transport is taken into account.
First, the requirements of customers for future mobility in different ecosystems will be considered and systematized. In addition, the current and planned regulation is presented in the social context. Furthermore, the development periods for infrastructure and technologies are compared and requirements for corresponding milestones are derived from the 2050 target perspective. Their implementation is an essential prerequisite for linking the energy and mobility turnarounds. Corresponding requirements for the development of the infrastructure from the provision of primary energy to the distribution of the final energy carriers for the vehicles are derived accordingly.
Furthermore, the technologies that will compete for mobility in 2050 will be presented and characterized. These include battery electric vehicles, vehicles with internal combustion engines, fuel cell vehicles and mixtures of these (hybrid vehicles). In addition to the consideration of the Tank-to-Wheel chain, which is the basis of the current CO₂ legislation for vehicle fleets in Europe, the Well-to-Wheel and Life Cycle balances are compared, which can form the basis for future legislation to be defined. For internal combustion engine based powertrains, approaches are presented that can significantly increase efficiency by exploiting technological developments and the properties of future fuels.
By means of IAV mobility synthesis, the requirements, boundary conditions and technology alternatives are then recorded using a multi-criteria approach and the resulting scenarios derived. These relate to the fleet mix of powertrain types, the corresponding demand for energy sources up to the primary source and the necessary infrastructure measures.
An evaluation of the results, conclusions and the necessary next steps towards CO₂ free mobility in 2050 complete the contribution.