Economic Viability of Fuel Cell-Based Long-Haul Heavy-Duty Transport: A TCO Comparison of Classical & CO2 Neutral Propulsion Systems

Authors

Dr. A. Neumann, A. von Gregory, Strategy Engineers, Munich; P. Gillbrand, M. Rothbart, AVL List GmbH, Graz:

Year

2021

Print Info

Production/Publication ÖVK

Summary

There is an intense debate going on at the moment about hydrogen’s potential as an energy carrier in the automotive industry, especially in the commercial vehicle sector. The transportation sector is under pressure to bring forward the right mix of drivetrain solutions to help meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times and to achieve the EU’s target of being climate neutral by 2050. About 888 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) were emitted by road transport in the EU in 2018, accounting for 26% of all CO₂ emissions in the EU that year. Trucks and buses accounted for 26% of the CO₂ from road transport and light-duty vehicles for 13%. Therefore, commercial vehicles represented almost 40% of the CO₂ emissions produced via EU road traffic. Commercial vehicles are also responsible for the largest increase in CO₂ emissions within the transport sector between 1990 and 2020. The passenger car segment will cut CO₂ emissions by electrifying the fleet. By 2030 nearly every new car sold will be a hybrid or a battery-electric vehicle. Depending on the use case, electrification will also be applied in goods transport for last-mile delivery. The technology pathway to climate neutrality for long-haul transport, however, is less clear. A number of technical solutions is being discussed and developed, especially for commercial trucks, to meet the climate targets. These include: hybridized diesels, full-electric powertrains, overhead line concepts for commercial traffic on highways, combustion engines powered by synthetic fuels, hydrogen as well as electric propulsion based on fuel cells. Technical feasibility is important but equally crucial is that the solution is cost effective over the vehicle’s lifetime. Although a greener future is highly sought after, total cost of ownership (TCO) remains the main driver for heavy-duty long-haul transportation. The National Platform Future of mobility (NPM), in which practically the entire transport sector is involved, from vehicle manufacturers to NGOs, has set a target that one-third of all commercial vehicle mileage be driven fully electric by 2030. This will only be achievable with a mix of technologies. NPM Chairman Henning Kagermann suggests that until 2025 three technology options should be pursued for heavy-duty long-distance transport: batteryelectric, hydrogen and overhead lines. In commercial transport, operating expenses (OPEX) are the decisive factor for a TCO calculation because of the high mileage driven (about 140,000 km a year). Operating costs based on fuel prices, CO₂ emissions charges and tolls account for roughly 83% of TCO – only approximately 17% is CAPEX related. Hydrogen as an energy carrier is benefiting from the rise of national and regional strategies and funding opportunities. Hydrogen is a promising candidate for CO₂ reduction for the powertrain and truck application in the combustion engine as well as fuel cell-based solutions. Hydrogen prices from currently about €9 /kgH₂ will decrease to about €5 to €6/kg H₂ in 2030 and €3.5 to €4.5/kgH₂ in 2040 based on increasing amounts of green electricity, as well as economies of scale in hydrogen production. CO₂ emissions charges play an increasing role in operating costs, much to the drawback of diesel drives compared with hydrogen drives. In Germany, diesels are being charged at a level of €25/tCO₂ (~€7ct/l diesel) since January 1, 2021. As early as 2025, the charge will rise to €50/tCO₂. The price will be determined by the emissions trading system from 2026, at which time prices are expected to exceed €100/tCO₂. Tolls are an important cost consideration for fleet operators as they account for about 25% of OPEX in long-haul heavy-duty transportation. A staggered toll-reduction program for electric- and natural gas-powered trucks is in place in Germany to support the market ramp up of these vehicles. Trucks with electric drivetrains, including fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), will be completely exempt from tolls for an unlimited period. A wide range of competitors have entered the race to find the most technologically advanced and economical concepts and products. Daimler Truck, which will become an independent DAX-listed company this year, and Volvo Group set up a joint venture last year with the goal of being the leading global manufacturer of fuel cells. Currently, only Toyota and Hyundai offer fuel cell passenger vehicles. Hyundai also has the Xcient, a 34-metric ton (with trailer) fuel cell heavy truck with a 190-kilowatt fuel cell system. Currently 50 Xcient trucks are being tested in Switzerland. By 2025 Hyundai plans to roll out a total of 1,600 units of the heavy truck. A multitude of additional competitors are targeting the sector. Some with futuristic exterior designs such as Volta Zero, Einride Pod and Tesla Semi in the full-electric truck niche. There is also Quantron, a German startup founded in 2019 to develop electric and FCEV trucks and is part of Haller GmbH & Co., which has been in the truck repair industry for more than 100 years; Nikola Corp., which will build the Tre full-electric truck at Iveco's factory in Ulm, Germany, from 2021 and also plans to produce a fuel cell variant of the truck starting in 2023; and Hyzon Motors, a U.S. fuel cell vehicle maker based in Rochester, N.Y., that has operations in the Netherlands as well as China, Australia and Singapore. In summary, hydrogen-powered heavy-duty long-distance trucks are a legitimate investment option for fleet operators from both an economic and environmental perspective. It is now up to EU policymakers to facilitate the quick creation of the hydrogen infrastructure to support this transition.

Number of pages

20 Order